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Suppose that the daily log return of a security follows the model r t=0.01 0.2 r t-2 a t, where {a t} is a Gaussian white noise series with mean zero and variance 0.02. What are the mean and variance of the return series rt? Compute the lag-1 and lag-2 autocorrelations of r. Assume that r 100=-0.01, and r 99=0.02. Compute the 1-step and 2-step ahead forecasts of the return series at the forecast origin t=100. What are the associated standard deviations of the forecast errors? | Numerade
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